Covid 19 has been in the headlines for almost a year now. Even when it was subordinate to election news or other stories, there was never a time when you could not find news about coronavirus.
Lots of competing theories about what covid actually is, or what it isn’t. I was recently told that it is part of a campaign to soften us up for imminent takeover by the shadowy “New World Order.” Many believe that “they” have made it into a bigger deal than it is, though who “they” refers to varies depending on who you ask. Many who acknowledge that it is in fact a real virus nevertheless feel that it is an opportunity that has been seized by one group or another to further certain agendas. Meanwhile, health care professionals scramble to contain the epidemic, imploring people to take simple steps like wearing a mask, and to make more serious sacrifices, like limiting contact with people.
The most common comparison is to the 1918 flu, commonly called the Spanish Flu. The Covid epidemic has not yet reached the same proportions as the Spanish Flu, which infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide, with 50 million deaths. Deaths in the United States reached 675,000. So far Covid has infected about 73 million people worldwide, with 1.6 million deaths, though the stats for the United States are approaching 1918 levels much more quickly than worldwide.
The Spanish Flu was devastating. The 500 million estimated infected was approximately a third of the population of the world. It struck at the end of World War I, compounding the misery. Though the earliest cases were reported in the United States, then European countries, World War I censorship prevented widespread discussion. It was only in neutral Spain that the sickness was well-publicized, leading to the misconception that it began there, or at least was especially bad in Spain. Combination of environmental factors and the malnutrition and poor hygiene resulting from the war led this flu to spread more quickly, and to cause more deaths than usual, though there was no evidence that the strain was more virulent than others. Lack of antiviral or antibacterial medicines meant there was no effective treatment. Outbreaks continued into 1920.
Without question, the deadliest pandemic in world history was the variety of diseases, especially smallpox, that virtually depopulated North America, and also killed millions in Central and South America, following the large scale contact between residents of the Americas and invading Europeans beginning at the end of the 15th century. The scale of death from the Columbian Exchange is contested, but some estimate that 95-99% of the indiguenous population of North America died from disease, or from the warfare, malnutrition, and other effects of the pandemic. Even more than percentages of population killed, the actual number of deaths is hotly contested, and highly politicized. The higher the number, the worse the tragedy. Those who wish to justify expansion by Europeans, then by Americans, promote lower numbers, while those who do not want to see native culture erased or trivialized point to evidence of much higher populations. Estimates of the total deaths directly caused by European contact range from 50 million to 100 million people.
The only rival of the depopulation of the Americas, not only in terms of deaths but of impact on world history, is the Black Death. The first recorded wave of bubonic plague, the Plague of Justinian, struck Europe and the Middle East between the 6th and 8th centuries. Some cities saw death rates of up to 10,000 a day. It’s difficult to arrive at firm numbers, but is estimated that between this plague, its societal side effects, and other issues in Europe, the European population saw a 50% drop between 550 and 700. Terrible as it was, it was completely overshadowed by the return of bubonic plague in the 14th century. Known as the Black Death, it killed somewhere between 75 and 200 million people between Europe and Asia.
The Black Death ushered in the modern era. The devastation in Europe was so nearly total that it prompted a radical change in social and economic structures. Watching nobility die just as easily as peasants led common folk to question rigid hierarchies. Europeans were forced to adapt, and a centuries-long stagnant period was broken. The societies that emerged from the Black Death were much more dynamic, and it is no coincidence that the era of exploration and colonization followed soon after. The dynamism continued into the industrial revolution, the scientific revolution, social revolutions, and into the world we have today.
Equally important to world history, though much less well-known, is the impact of the Black Death on Asia, especially on China. We have less reliable statistics for Asia, but there is every reason to believe that infection and death rates were just as high there as in Europe. It struck at a time of weakness and division in China. Coupled with the invasion of the Mongols, it completely changed the course of Chinese history. While the Black Death led Europe to a more dynamic society, in China these events led to a fundamental inquest, with the result being a return to a more staid, traditional approach. Before this period, the Chinese tribute fleets of Zheng He sailed as far as Madagascar. Under the return to conservative, inward focused Confucianism, China destroyed its fleets. Thus, when Portuguese explorers rounded Africa into the Indian ocean, they found nothing more formidable than a local fishing fleet, where they once would have encountered fleets the scale of which would not be seen again until World War I.
It remains to be seen what effects the Covid pandemic will have on our society. Improvements in healthcare, and the imminent vaccine, ensure that the scale of this pandemic will not approach the 1918 flu, much less the more devastating Columbian Exchange or Black Death. But this does not mean that we will go back to normal. Will covid 19 be seen as a moment when something fundamental in our world shifted? Or will we forget about it soon after it’s gone? Some industries, such as movies, may have to change completely. Many of us are working from home, and we have yet to see how many will never return to the office, having demonstrated the efficiency of remote work. This may change the way we think about and approach communicable diseases, even just the common cold. This will not be a world historical landmark like the Black Death, but still, we may never see the pre-Covid world again.